Suez Canal Reopening Must Be Gradual to Avoid Supply Chain Disruption, Experts Warn

Recent developments have brought renewed optimism for the re-routing of large containerships through the Suez Canal. The successful transit of the 15,536 TEU CMA CGM Osiris on 18 June — the first ultra-large container vessel (ULCV) to pass through since March 2024 — has signaled a potential turning point in regional stability.

Ceasefire announcements between Israel and Iran, as well as between Israel and Gaza, further reinforce expectations that ocean carriers may soon reconsider Suez-based routings for their Asia–Europe services.

To incentivize this shift, the Suez Canal Authority has introduced a 15% discount on transit fees for large containerships (130,000 Suez Canal Net Tonnage and above), effective from 15 May for a period of 90 days.

Chaos to be expected when returning to Suez routings

However, cautionary voices from within the logistics sector urge restraint. Speaking at TOC Europe 2025 in Rotterdam, Bjorn Vang Jensen, EVP and Global Head of Ocean Freight at Shenzhen-based Easy Speed Logistics, issued a strong warning: a full-scale and simultaneous return to Suez Canal routings could trigger “three months of utter chaos” and destabilize freight rates.

Jensen, a seasoned professional with experience spanning ocean carriers and major BCOs, spoke during a panel discussion on Strategies to Achieve Excellence in Supply Chain Management. He emphasized that while many stakeholders are eager for the Red Sea crisis to subside and the Suez Canal to resume full operations, the transition must be carefully managed.

Facing Euro ports congestion when rerouting via Suez

“At some point, carriers will deem it safe to resume Suez transits, and it’s highly likely that many will do so simultaneously,” he said. “A single directive from headquarters will instruct ships to turn right at Africa instead of continuing around the Cape of Good Hope. That’s where the operational complications begin.”

Jensen highlighted that vessels redirecting via the Suez Canal may reach Europe ahead of others still navigating the longer Cape route, disrupting carefully sequenced cargo flows. This disjointed arrival pattern could result in severe port congestion across key Northern European and Mediterranean gateways.

Supply chains will face disruption

Compounding the issue is the strain on inland logistics. Limited trucking capacity and insufficient warehousing to accommodate out-of-sync arrivals will further exacerbate the problem. The delayed repositioning of empty containers back to Asia, Jensen warned, could have a ripple effect.

“Covid taught us how quickly an equipment shortage can arise. If empty containers aren’t returned efficiently, Asia will begin experiencing shortages in just three weeks. That cascades into months of wider supply chain disruption,” he said.

The key takeaway from Jensen’s address: a gradual, coordinated reintroduction of Suez Canal routings is essential. Without it, the industry risks facing another round of global supply chain instability, just as recovery begins to take shape.

Copyright: https://www.worldcargonews.com/shipping-logistics/2025/06/whole-scale-reopening-of-suez-canal-will-spell-utter-chaos/